On April 20, 2024, the crypto community will witness the halving of Bitcoin (BTC), the most highly capitalised cryptocurrency. Historical data show that reducing the mining speed by half can push the coin's price to new highs. The itez editorial team decided to explore the potential levels BTC could reach. To do this, we compiled Bitcoin forecasts from prominent participants in the crypto industry into a single review.
Why is everyone anticipating Bitcoin to skyrocket after the halving?
Halving reduces the speed of Bitcoin mining by half. The total supply of BTC is capped at 21 million coins, and this event limits the flow of new tokens into the market, creating scarcity and often driving the price upward. The impact of halving can be clearly seen using a "rainbow" chart. Note how BTC tends to surge to new highs after each halving event.
The "rainbow" chart of Bitcoin (the price is indicated by the black curve), which vividly demonstrates BTC's reaction to halvings (vertical lines). The purple-blue area represents low coin values, while the orange-red area represents high values. Source: blockchaincenter
Members of the cryptocurrency community have already witnessed three Bitcoin halvings, which occurred in 2012, 2016, and 2020. Each event led to a supply shock. This scarcity has historically pushed Bitcoin to new all-time highs (ATH) following each halving. For example, after the 2016 halving, Bitcoin reached a peak of nearly $20,000 in December 2017. It wasn't until the end of November 2020 that the cryptocurrency managed to revisit this level. Following the 2020 halving, a new ATH was recorded in November 2021, when Bitcoin hit close to $69,000. The cryptocurrency did not return to this level until March 2024.
Where is Bitcoin’s possible ATH this time?
$90,000 by the end of 2024. According to analysts at Bernstein, BTC will start the new year near the mentioned level.Looking further ahead, Bernstein's analysts predict that in 2025, the coin could reach as high as $150,000. These forecasts are based on their analysis of potential demand for Bitcoin following this year's halving.
$147,000 by 2025. This Bitcoin forecast was provided by analysts at Pantera Capital. Their calculations are based on the analysis of the cryptocurrency's behaviour during previous cycles after halvings.
$150,000 by the end of 2024. The author of the forecast is Tom Lee, the co-founder of the analytical firm Fundstrat. He explained his viewpoint by citing the probable increase in demand for BTC following the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US. At the same time, the halving event will cut the influx of new coins by half, creating a scarcity of the cryptocurrency that could drive its price to unprecedented heights.
A similar forecast was revealed by Standard Chartered. In their opinion, by the end of 2024, BTC could reach $150,000. The CEO of Morgan Creek Capital, Mark Yusko, joined his colleagues in this prediction. He also believes that Bitcoin will reach $150,000 by the end of 2024.
$200,000 by September 2025. This Bitcoin forecast belongs to the popular crypto community analyst and the head of Factor LLC Peter Brandt. He has successfully predicted market movements several times, such as the crypto winter of 2018. Brandt constructed his Bitcoin price forecast for 2025 based on the cryptocurrency’s growth rates in early 2024.
$300,000 by the end of 2024. The author of the bestseller "Rich Dad Poor Dad" and entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki considers Bitcoin the best store of value. He believes that the coin’s scarcity, formed by halving in tandem with spot Bitcoin ETFs demand, will provide active growth.
A similar Bitcoin forecast, but with different time frames, was given by Dan Tapiero, CEO of 10T Holdings. He believes that BTC could reach $300,000 by March 2026.
$10.6 million by 2045. Giovanni Santostasi, a physics professor, predicts that Bitcoin (BTC) could reach $10.6 million by 2045. He bases his bold forecast on the power-law model, which is used to predict asset movements by analysing the relationship between two variables: demand and supply levels.
Summing up
Many crypto community participants believe that Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by the end of 2024, particularly because of the anticipated halving event. Long-term projections even suggest a potential rise to $200,000 and higher.
Historical data indicate that Bitcoin has consistently grown after previous halving events, and there is a strong possibility it could do so again after the fourth halving. However, such growth is not guaranteed. The price dynamics of Bitcoin are influenced by numerous factors, including unpredictable regulatory pressures that could significantly impact its value.
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This article is not an investment recommendation. The financial transactions mentioned in the article are not a guide to action. Itez is not responsible for possible risks. The user should independently conduct an analysis on the basis of which it will be possible to draw conclusions and make decisions about making any operations with cryptocurrency.
