Typically, September is the worst month for Bitcoin. The editors at itez decided to find out if BTC has a chance to break the negative pattern and grow in the first month of autumn. Here is a Bitcoin September price prediction, coupled with expert insights.
Possible trajectory for Bitcoin in September
Observations show a consistent decrease in BTC value during September. That has been happening to Bitcoin for 6 years already, which is a real record as there is no other month that would bring investors such consistent losses.
This recurring record indicates that, out of the 12 years of BTC’s existence:
📉 In 66% of cases, BTC becomes cheaper in September.
📈 In 35% of cases, BTC concludes September being more expensive than at the beginning of the month.
Three factors that could support Bitcoin's growth this September
1. We have only about 7 months left until the next halving
History shows that halvings always trigger growth cycles both for Bitcoin and the entire digital asset market. It is supposed that BTC might experience a rise in its value right a few months before the halving.
Halving is a process that cuts the mining speed in half, leading to reduction of the reward miners get for their work by half. Halvings create a shortage of BTC in the market, increasing the coin's value.
You can learn more about the cyclical nature of Bitcoin and those halvings in our article.
2. The possible launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the US fuels interest in the cryptocurrency
Grayscale’s recent victory over the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) definitely set the fire.
Grayscale is an asset management company. In 2013, it launched a Bitcoin trust (GBTC), which allows people to buy Bitcoin through so-called shares. In 2021, Grayscale applied to the SEC for approval of GBTC’s transformation into a spot Bitcoin ETF. However, the watchdog refused, claiming that this market is too dangerous for investors. Subsequently, Grayscale filed a lawsuit against the SEC.
According to the court decision, the regulator has to review Grayscale's application. It does not necessarily mean that the spot Bitcoin ETF will be approved, but this news caused Bitcoin to skyrocket by 5.5% up to $28,142, while Ethereum surged by 4.5% up to $1,745.
If you still have no clue, read our article: What is a spot Bitcoin ETF, and why does everyone talk about it?
3. X (formerly Twitter) is now licensed to conduct transactions with fiat and digital assets
If the social network launches payments in digital assets, this could support the crypto market.
Elon Musk, who runs the company, has got licenses which enable him to provide customers with tools for transacting in seven US states. In August, the businessman announced that he would not launch his own crypto, but he wanted to organize payments in X and turn it into an "everything app."
Two reasons why Bitcoin could face a drop in September
1. Grayscale's victory over the SEC does not guarantee the conversion of their trust into a spot Bitcoin ETF
The court decision obliges the Commission only to review the application, but the approval remains uncertain.
As of the time of writing (August 31, 2023), the SEC is considering eight applications from several companies, such as 21Shares & ARK, BlackRock, Bitwise, VanEck, Wisdomtree, Invesco & Galaxy, Fidelity, and Valkyrie. The maximum review period for each is 240 days.
The commission has been postponing its decisions on companies' applications to launch a spot Bitcoin ETF for several months already. Such prolonged actions could lead to dampened optimism and decreased BTC rate in the absence of any positive news.
2. The US regulators continue to heighten scrutiny
They received charges in the early summer of 2023. The main allegation is that these exchanges offered users tools to conduct transactions involving illegally issued securities in the form of cryptocurrency. Additionally, the watchdogs have raised questions about the legality of Binance's US arm, Binance.US operations. Negative news tied to the investigations might be the cause of a market decline as well.
Bitcoin forecast for September from an expert
We have talked to Dmitry Noskov, an expert from StormGain crypto exchange. His forecasts for September turned out to be quite sad. Noskov believes that BTC has no prospects of reaching the $30,000 point again so far.
"The main reason for the Bitcoin sell-offs is the high rate of the US Federal Reserve, which has reached 5.5% annually. Market participants are withdrawing funds from digital assets and transferring them into more reliable and currently profitable dollar-denominated tools. If the US Federal Reserve is going to increase the rate until inflation drops to 2% annually, the withdrawal of funds from Bitcoin will continue," said the expert.
Dmiltry Noskov also highlighted the influence of negative news. In his opinion, they could trigger BTC to fall to $25,000 or even below. The expert referenced recent reports about Elon Musk's SpaceX Bitcoin sale. Those turned out to be fake, but Bitcoin reacted with a 13% drop immediately. Noskov anticipates that the real BTC sales by major companies could lead to similar market responses.
Can we earn with Bitcoin this September?
Statistics indicate that September is the most challenging month for Bitcoin. According to our expert, BTC might experience a downturn in September 2023; prevailing sentiment seems to be bad for growth.
However, there is a silver lining: buying Bitcoin at a lower price might be an excellent investment for the future. The entire investor community is looking forward to the upcoming halving, which could launch a new growth cycle for the whole digital asset market. To buy Bitcoin with a bank card for fiat, the itez licensed platform offers the most profitable option!
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This article is not an investment recommendation. The financial transactions mentioned in the article are not a guide to action. Itez is not responsible for possible risks. The user should independently conduct an analysis on the basis of which it will be possible to draw conclusions and make decisions about making any operations with cryptocurrency.